How does investor behaviour impact market conditions?

The financial market is heavily influenced by investor sentiment. Emotion, fear, bias, optimism, herd behaviour and other such behavioural factors can result in volatility and even bullish or bearish environments.

This link between investor sentiment and markets is one of the focus areas of behavioural finance. This article tells you more about behavioural biases and how investor behaviour can influence market trends.

• Table of contents

1. Common behavioural biases
2. Behavioural finance market impact
3. Impact on financial professionals and firms
4. Improving financial decision-making

Common behavioural biases

Here are some common biases that influence investment decisions.

• Overconfidence bias: Many investors demonstrate overconfidence in their abilities, which can lead them to trade too frequently or impulsively and take excessive risks.
• Herding bias: Many investors follow investment trends without independent analysis. This can result in panic buying or selling and lead to stock market bubbles or crashes.
• Loss aversion: Investors tend to hold on to losing stocks too long instead of cutting their losses and seeking better prospects. This is because of the loss aversion bias, according to which people feel the pain of loss more acutely than the perceived benefit of making gains.
• Status quo bias: Investors often prefer to let things continue as they are than change course or take risks. In investing, this can lead to missed opportunities and reluctance to rebalance or alter portfolios based on new information or changing circumstances.
• Anchoring: This is the tendency to place too much weight on a piece of information learnt early in the decision-making process. In the context of the stock market, investors may rely too much on the purchase price of an investment rather than the company’s fundamentals to make buy or sell decisions.
• Mental accounting: This can lead investors to value money differently based on arbitrary factors, such as where it has come from or where it is being spent.

Behavioural finance market impact

The impact of behavioural finance on the market can be quite pronounced. Irrational decision-making can fuel inefficiencies and instability in the market. Here are some examples:

• Speculative bubbles: Herding and overconfidence can lead to drastic overvaluation of the price of an asset or a group of assets, also known as asset bubbles.
• Market crashes: Fear or panic from events such as the recent COVID-19 pandemic can swiftly crash markets due to fear or emotional reactions.
• Calendar effects: This refers to patterns in stock market prices that are related to specific times of the year. An example is the January effect, where prices of certain stocks have historically tended to rise at the start of the year.
• Value/growth anomalies: Loss aversion can cause underreaction to value stocks and overreaction to growth stocks, creating mispricing.
• Momentum effect: Investors herd to recent winners, creating short-term momentum unrelated to fundamentals.

Impact on financial professionals and firms

Behavioural biases affect not just individual investors but professionals too. This may happen in the following ways:

• Portfolio managers may hold on to losing assets, inaccurately time the market, or herd into assets, hurting performance.
• Analysts are prone to confirmation bias, only seeking information that validates their views and ignoring contradicting data.
• Financial advisors can be anchored to simplistic historical rules of thumb and fail to rebalance portfolios optimally.
• Corporate managers may be overly optimistic about growth plans or fail to recognize loss-making divisions.

Improving financial decision-making

To overcome behavioural biases, investors and professionals can take the following measures:

• Analyze past decisions to identify recurring biases.
• Seek contrary opinions to avoid confirmation bias.
• Use systematic checklists to avoid mental shortcuts.
• Create a written investment policy statement to anchor decisions to fundamentals rather than sentiment.
• Use nudges and reminders to reduce inertia.
• Enforce a reflection period before trading to limit impulsiveness.
• Use algorithms or robo-advisors for automated, emotionless trading.

Conclusion

Behavioural finance highlights the powerful impact that human psychology can have on financial markets. By understanding biases like herding and overconfidence, investors and professionals can enhance their decision-making. Regulators can also use these insights while forming investor-protection policies and can take steps to improve financial education. A Systematic Investment Plan in a mutual fund can help tackle biases to some extent. By committing to a disciplined SIP approach, investors make regular contributions regardless of market conditions, mitigating the effects of emotional decision-making. A monthly SIP calculator can help investors visualise the potential growth of their monthly contributions. This can help develop a long-term focus to investing.

FAQs

What is behavioural finance?

Behavioural finance is a field of research that combines psychology and economics to understand how cognitive biases and emotions influence financial decision-making. It explores phenomena such as cognitive biases, heuristics, and emotional responses to market events to explain why markets are sometimes inefficient.

What are the main behavioural biases affecting investors?

The key biases include overconfidence, herding, loss aversion, status quo bias, anchoring, and mental accounting. This can lead investors to trade too aggressively, follow the crowd, hold on to losing stocks for too long, stick to their default plan or make erroneous spending decisions.

What steps can investors take to control their biases?

Investors should seek diverse opinions, use checklists, set written policies, conduct audits of past decisions, impose reflection delays, use robo-advisors, and make their investment process more systematic overall. This can help counter the effects of irrational biases.

Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
This document should not be treated as endorsement of the views/opinions or as investment advice. This document should not be construed as a research report or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. This document is for information purpose only and should not be construed as a promise on minimum returns or safeguard of capital. This document alone is not sufficient and should not be used for the development or implementation of an investment strategy. The recipient should note and understand that the information provided above may not contain all the material aspects relevant for making an investment decision. Investors are advised to consult their own investment advisor before making any investment decision in light of their risk appetite, investment goals and horizon. This information is subject to change without any prior notice.